I have been following the coronavirus, COVID-19, since there were <500 cases worldwide. The majority of my Twitter feed has been discussing and trying to model this virus for months. I couldn’t have avoided reading about it if I wanted to, as I use Twitter for about 99% of my news. Retweeted links and opinions from my curated list of follows keeps me informed on a variety of topics almost always before they reach peak mainstream saturation.
From the get go, this virus has been most concerning due to its exponential growth. That is to say, it spreads in a non-linear fashion with a doubling rate of 2-3 days. A seemingly small number of infected cases can quickly turn into a large number of infected cases “overnight,” when in reality, the foundation for this growth was being staged for some time.
Well, the virus is here in the US, and likely has been now for some time. I am fortunate to be nearly completely out of the equities market, having sold the third week of February. I’ll write about trying to time the market in a future post.
We have about 3 months of food, thanks in large part to early preparation, a second refrigerator, and extra storage space. Why did we stock up on food weeks ago? Because there was no real cost to doing so, and in absence of any good data coupled with a non-zero chance of the virus impacting our way of life, it was an easy decision to take this risk into consideration and prep. To quote Nassim Taleb: “if you’re going to panic, panic early.” and “In the real world, one must reduce risk in the absence of reliable data.”
If wrong, we would have three months of food that we enjoy and would eat over time. If right, then we would be prepared and wouldn’t have to worry about empty shelves and battling our way through crowded stores with other people who may or may not have the virus and be contagious. Therefore, no downside to getting supplies.
We have continued to buy groceries and eat fresh food as long as possible. I ventured out this morning to see if I could get some last minute items and assess the situation first hand. What I found was a supermarket without any meat, pasta, pasta sauce, and toilet paper.
We have a supply of all these items already, but it was alarming to see the store this picked over. At least for now, it seems that we made the right decision by “panicking early.”
Quick note: By far the best person to follow on Twitter for all things virus has been Balaji Srinivasan (@balajis). He has been publicly vocal about the risks this virus posed longer than anyone. He was a candidate to run the FDA a few years back. Clearly, he would have been a great choice.
theDCal 